Prediction Markets

Will global tropical primary forest loss in 2026 exceed 3.5 million hectares according to Global Forest Watch?

Will the annual deforestation rate in the Brazilian Amazon be less than 5,000 km² (according to INPE PRODES) in 2026?

Will the total primary forest loss in Southeast Asia exceed 1,000,000 hectares in 2026?

Will the total Heating Degree Days (HDD) in the United States for the 2026-2027 winter (Dec-Feb) exceed the 10-year average?

Will the WHO declare a new Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) in the next 12 months?

Will the WHO declare a pandemic in the next 12 months?

Will global economic damage from floods exceed $50 billion in 2026?

Will global anthropogenic CO2 emissions exceed 40 gigatons in 2026?

Will at least one magnitude 8.0 or greater earthquake occur globally before 2027-06-28?

Will an earthquake of magnitude 7.5 or greater occur in Japan before 2027-06-28?

Which country will experience the deadliest earthquake of 2026?

Which country will have the largest wildfire (by area burned) in 2026?

Will global wildfire CO2 emissions exceed 2.5 gigatons in 2026?

Will the number of major flood events (EM-DAT definition) globally exceed 200 in 2026?

Will global installed battery storage capacity exceed 1,200 GWh by the end of 2027?

Will the average lithium-ion battery pack price be below $100/kWh at the end of 2027?

Will global green hydrogen production exceed 5 million tonnes per year by the end of 2027?

Will the levelized cost of green hydrogen fall below $4 per kg by the end of 2027?

What will be the highest VEI of any volcanic eruption in the next 12 months?

Will at least one volcanic eruption with VEI 5 or greater occur globally in the next 12 months?

Will London Heathrow Airport record a maximum temperature of at least 40.0°C (104°F) on any day in July 2026?

Will the global average temperature for June 2026 be the warmest June on record, according to the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S)?

Will at least 150 countries have adopted a net-zero by 2050 target by December 31, 2026?

Will more than 50% of Fortune 500 companies have net-zero pledges by December 31, 2026?

Will at least 25 countries have adopted a net-zero by 2060 or 2070 target by December 31, 2026?

How much new solar PV capacity will be installed globally in 2026 (in GW)?

What will be the total global solar PV installed capacity at the end of 2026 (in GW)?

What will be the global weighted-average levelized cost of utility-scale solar PV in 2026 (in $/MWh)?

Will global terrestrial protected area coverage exceed 18% of land area according to the 2026 Protected Planet Report?

Will the total number of species assessed on the IUCN Red List exceed 160,000 in its 2026-2 update?

Will the National Hurricane Center (NHC) designate at least one new tropical or subtropical cyclone in the Atlantic basin between July 1, 2026 and July 20, 2026?

Will the total climate finance provided by developed countries to developing nations in 2026 exceed $100 billion?

Will the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) for the Western United States be -3 or lower (indicating severe drought) at the end of December 2026?

Will the total HDD in the Northeast region for the winter of 2026-2027 (Dec 2026 – Feb 2027) exceed the 1991-2020 average?

Will the total HDD in the South region for the winter of 2026-2027 (Dec 2026 – Feb 2027) exceed the 1991-2020 average?

Will the total HDD in the Southeast region for the winter of 2026-2027 (Dec 2026 – Feb 2027) exceed the 1991-2020 average?

Will the total HDD in the West North Central region for the winter of 2026-2027 (Dec 2026 – Feb 2027) exceed the 1991-2020 average?

Will the total HDD in the West region for the winter of 2026-2027 (Dec 2026 – Feb 2027) exceed the 1991-2020 average?

Will the total Cooling Degree Days (CDD) in the United States for summer 2026 (Jun-Aug) exceed the 10-year average?

Will the total precipitation in the contiguous United States in 2026 be above the 20th-century average?

Will the total HDD in the Southwest region for the winter of 2026-2027 (Dec 2026 – Feb 2027) exceed the 1991-2020 average?

Will the total HDD in the Northwest region for the winter of 2026-2027 (Dec 2026 – Feb 2027) exceed the 1991-2020 average?

Will the total HDD in the Central region for the winter of 2026-2027 (Dec 2026 – Feb 2027) exceed the 1991-2020 average?

Will the total HDD in the East North Central region for the winter of 2026-2027 (Dec 2026 – Feb 2027) exceed the 1991-2020 average?

What will be the closing price of China ETS carbon allowances on December 31, 2026 (in CNY/ton)?

What will be the annual average EU ETS carbon price in 2027?

Will the EU ETS carbon price reach €100 at any point in 2027?

Will the UK ETS allowance price exceed £100 per ton by the end of 2027?

Will the California Carbon Allowance price exceed $50 per ton by the end of 2027?

Will total pledged contributions to the UNFCCC Loss and Damage Fund reach $1 billion by December 31, 2026?

Will the Loss and Damage Fund disburse any funds before July 1, 2027?

Will at least one major ice shelf collapse occur in Antarctica in 2026?

How much ice will Antarctica lose in 2026?

Will a new commercial BECCS plant with a capacity of at least 0.5 MtCO2/year be commissioned before July 1, 2028?

Will global direct air capture (DAC) capacity reach at least 0.5 million tons CO2 per year before July 1, 2028?

Will the levelized cost of direct air capture fall below $400 per ton CO2 before July 1, 2028?

What will be the Arctic sea ice annual minimum extent in September 2026?

When will the first ice‑free Arctic summer occur?

Will the Arctic sea ice minimum extent in September 2026 set a new record low?

Will the OECD officially confirm that the $100 billion annual climate finance target was met for 2026?

Will US energy-related CO2 emissions be lower in 2027 than in 2026?

Will China's CO2 emissions peak before 2030?

In which year will global fossil CO2 emissions peak?

Will the European Union achieve at least a 55% net reduction in greenhouse gas emissions by 2030 compared to 1990 levels?

Will a new nuclear reactor construction start in the United States in 2027?

Will Japan restart at least one nuclear reactor that is still shut down on January 1, 2027 during the year 2027?

Will global mean sea level rise reach 1 meter by 2100?

Will the global mean sea level rise acceleration in 2026 be positive?

Will the global mean sea level rise rate in 2026 exceed 4.0 mm/yr?

Will the European Parliament formally adopt a position calling for a 90% net greenhouse gas emission reduction target for 2040 before July 24, 2026?

Will the United States submit its 2035 Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) target to the UNFCCC before July 24, 2026?

Will China set a new all-time high temperature record in 2026?

Will Argentina set a new all-time high temperature record in 2026?

Will Brazil set a new all-time high temperature record in 2026?

Will India set a new all-time high temperature record in 2026?

Will Iran set a new all-time high temperature record in 2026?

Will Japan set a new all-time high temperature record in 2026?

Will Australia set a new all-time high temperature record in 2026?

Will Canada set a new all-time high temperature record in 2026?

Will Indonesia set a new all-time high temperature record in 2026?

Will Italy set a new all-time high temperature record in 2026?

Will Kenya set a new all-time high temperature record in 2026?

Will New Zealand set a new all-time high temperature record in 2026?

Will Russia set a new all-time high temperature record in 2026?

Will South Africa set a new all-time high temperature record in 2026?

Will Chile set a new all-time high temperature record in 2026?

Will Egypt set a new all-time high temperature record in 2026?

Will Germany set a new all-time high temperature record in 2026?

Will Nigeria set a new all-time high temperature record in 2026?

Will Turkey set a new all-time high temperature record in 2026?

Will United States set a new all-time high temperature record in 2026?

Will France set a new all-time high temperature record in 2026?

Will Sweden set a new all-time high temperature record in 2026?

Will Thailand set a new all-time high temperature record in 2026?

Will United Kingdom set a new all-time high temperature record in 2026?

Will Vietnam set a new all-time high temperature record in 2026?

Will Mexico set a new all-time high temperature record in 2026?

Will Norway set a new all-time high temperature record in 2026?

Will Saudi Arabia set a new all-time high temperature record in 2026?

Will South Korea set a new all-time high temperature record in 2026?

Will Spain set a new all-time high temperature record in 2026?

Will the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season have at least 14 named storms?

Will a new all-time high temperature record be set in any inhabited location in 2026?

Will a peer-reviewed study published in 2026 explicitly project an AMOC collapse before the year 2100?

Will the IUCN Red List declare any species Extinct in the Wild in 2026?

Will global offshore wind capacity exceed 150 GW by the end of 2027?

Which country will host the world's largest operational offshore wind farm by total capacity at the end of 2027?

What will be the total global onshore wind installed capacity at the end of 2026 (in GW)?

Will a marine cloud brightening field trial be conducted in the open ocean before July 1, 2027?

Will a national government announce a new dedicated SRM research program with at least $10 million in funding before July 1, 2027?

Will a solar radiation management (SRM) field trial be deployed outdoors before July 1, 2027?

Will total economic damage from hurricanes in the United States exceed $50 billion in 2026?

Will the total area burned by wildfires in Canada exceed 5 million hectares in 2026?

Will at least one Category 5 hurricane occur in the Atlantic basin in 2026?

Will the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season ACE index be above 105 (10^4 knots^2)?

Will 2026 be the hottest year on record globally?

Will the number of heatwaves in the contiguous United States in 2026 exceed the 1991-2020 average?

Which year will be the first calendar year with global average temperature anomaly above 1.5°C relative to pre-industrial levels?

Will the trailing 5-year average global temperature anomaly exceed 1.5°C relative to pre-industrial levels at the end of 2026?