Prediction Markets

Will the IMF's 2027 global GDP growth forecast be higher in the October 2026 World Economic Outlook than in the April 2026 World Economic Outlook?

How long will the next US recession last?

When will the next US recession start?

Will the US Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI‑U) month‑over‑month change for June 2026 be at least 0.2%?

Will the US core Consumer Price Index (excluding food and energy) year‑over‑year change for June 2026 be at least 2.5%?

Will the US Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI‑U) year‑over‑year change for June 2026 be at least 3.5%?

Will the US core Consumer Price Index (excluding food and energy) month‑over‑month change for June 2026 be at least 0.2%?

Will the ISM Manufacturing PMI for June 2026 be above 50?

Will the S&P Global US Composite PMI for June 2026 be above 50?

Will the ISM Services PMI for June 2026 be above 50?

Will the S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI for June 2026 be above 50?

What will be the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate on September 30, 2026?

Will the NAR Housing Affordability Index (composite) be above 100 for June 2026?

Will the global life expectancy at birth for 2026 be greater than 73 years according to World Bank data?

Will the global life expectancy at birth increase from 2025 to 2026 according to World Bank data?

What will be the US unemployment rate in June 2026?

Will the US youth (16-24) unemployment rate be below 9.0% in June 2026?

Will the US unemployment rate be below 4.5% in June 2026?

Will US building permits (seasonally adjusted annual rate) for June 2026 be above 1.4 million?

Will the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate be above 7% on September 30, 2026?

Will the IMF Executive Board approve a new Stand-By Arrangement for Argentina before January 1, 2027?

Will the US Congress pass all 12 regular appropriations bills for fiscal year 2027 before October 1, 2026?

Will the U.S. monthly trade deficit be greater than $75 billion in July 2026?

Will the U.S. monthly services trade surplus exceed $25 billion in July 2026?

Will the U.S. current account deficit be less than 3.0% of GDP in Q2 2026?

Will the US prime‑age (25‑54) labor force participation rate (seasonally adjusted) be 83.5% or higher in the July 2026 employment situation report?

Will the US labor force participation rate (seasonally adjusted, 16 years and over) be 62.5% or higher in the July 2026 employment situation report?

Will the US hires rate be above 3.5% in June 2026?

Will there be more than 8 million job openings in the US in June 2026?

Will the US quits rate be above 2.0% in June 2026?

Will the global annual population growth rate for 2026 be less than 1% according to World Bank data?

Will the global total population exceed 8.2 billion as of 2026 according to United Nations data?

Will there be at least 5 major strikes (involving 1,000 or more workers) in the US in Q3 2026 (July–September)?

Will the total number of workers involved in major strikes in the US in Q3 2026 be at least 100,000?

Will the US Industrial Production month-over-month change for June 2026 be positive?

Will the US Industrial Production year-over-year change for June 2026 be positive?

Will the IMF's total outstanding credit increase from June to July 2026?

Will the United States default on its federal debt obligations in 2026?

Will total US federal government tax receipts for fiscal year 2026 be higher than for fiscal year 2025?

Will the US Congress pass a bill authorizing at least $100 billion in new infrastructure spending before January 1, 2027?

Will the US federal government tax receipts as a percentage of GDP for fiscal year 2026 exceed 18%?

Will the US economy experience two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth in 2026?

What will be the US real GDP growth rate for 2026?

Will the United States experience a recession defined by two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth between July 2026 and June 2027?

Will the US real GDP annualized growth rate for Q2 2026 be at least 2.0%?

Will the global urban population growth rate for 2026 be greater than 2% according to World Bank data?

Will the global urban population percentage exceed 58% in 2026 according to World Bank data?

Will the median one-year-ahead expected inflation rate from the University of Michigan Survey of Consumers for July 2026 be less than 3.0%?

Will the median five-year-ahead expected inflation rate from the University of Michigan Survey of Consumers for July 2026 be less than 3.0%?

Will the average of the median one-year and five-year expected inflation rates from the University of Michigan Survey of Consumers for July 2026 be less than 3.0%?

Will the US trade deficit for May 2026 be greater than $80 billion?

Will US retail sales month-over-month change be positive for June 2026?

Will the US median home price-to-median income ratio exceed 6.5 for June 2026?

Will the global old-age dependency ratio exceed 16% in 2026 according to United Nations data?

Will China's economy grow in Q3 2026 compared to Q2 2026?

Will Japan's economy grow in Q3 2026 compared to Q2 2026?

Will the US economy grow in Q3 2026 compared to Q2 2026?

Will China's annual GDP growth rate for 2026 be at least 5%?

Will the eurozone economy grow in Q3 2026 compared to Q2 2026?

Will the Global Supply Chain Pressure Index exceed 0.5 in July 2026?

Will the Port of Los Angeles handle more than 1 million TEUs in July 2026?

Will the month-over-month change in the Producer Price Index (PPI) for final demand for June 2026 be positive?

Will the year-over-year change in the Producer Price Index (PPI) for final demand for June 2026 be less than 3.0%?

Will US retail sales year-over-year change be above 3% for June 2026?

Will the Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index for June 2026 be higher than the May 2026 reading?

Will the Conference Board CEO Confidence Index for Q3 2026 be above 50?

Will the global total fertility rate for 2026 be less than 2.3 births per woman according to United Nations data?

Will the year-over-year change in US average hourly earnings be above 4.0% in June 2026?

Will the month-over-month change in US average hourly earnings be above 0.3% in June 2026?

Will the U.S. federal budget deficit for fiscal year 2026 (ending September 30, 2026) be less than $2 trillion?

Will the US federal debt limit be raised or suspended before December 31, 2026?

Will the UK Consumer Price Index (CPI) year-over-year inflation rate for June 2026 be above 2.0%?

Will the ECB cut its key deposit rate at the July 2026 monetary policy meeting?

Will the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) year-over-year change for June 2026 be 3.0% or higher?

Will the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller National Home Price Index year-over-year change be greater than 5% in July 2026?

Will the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller National Home Price Index exceed 350 in July 2026?

Will the year-over-year change in the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index for June 2026 be less than 3.0%?

Will the year-over-year change in the core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index (excluding food and energy) for June 2026 be less than 2.5%?