Prediction Markets

Will a small modular reactor (SMR) achieve grid-connected operation for commercial electricity generation by December 31, 2028?

Will a quantum communication network with at least 50 nodes be reported in a peer-reviewed journal before 2027-06-28?

Will a commercial quantum communication network be deployed in a major city before 2027-06-28?

Will the European Commission issue a fine under the Digital Services Act to a very large online platform by December 31, 2026?

What will be the outcome of the Federal Trade Commission antitrust case against Amazon?

What will be the outcome of the United States Department of Justice antitrust case against Google?

Will Apple be found to have violated antitrust laws in a United States federal court by June 30, 2027?

Will Apple release the iPhone 18 series before January 1, 2027?

Will any AI system achieve a score of at least 80% on the ARC-AGI benchmark by 2027-06-28?

Will any AI system achieve a score of 90% or higher on the GPQA benchmark by 2027-06-28?

Will any AI model set a new state-of-the-art score on the full GLUE benchmark by 2027-06-28?

Will any AI system achieve expert-level performance (top 10th percentile of human experts) on the AP Physics C: Mechanics exam by 2027-06-28?

Will human-level Artificial General Intelligence be achieved by 2027-06-28?

Will Rocket Lab's Neutron rocket achieve its first orbital launch before January 1, 2028?

Will Blue Origin's Orbital Reef space station achieve initial operational capability (IOC) before January 1, 2029?

Will Intel begin high-volume manufacturing of its 18A process by March 31, 2027?

Will TSMC achieve a yield rate of at least 80% on its 2nm process by December 31, 2027?

Will TSMC begin volume production of 2nm chips by December 31, 2026?

Will TSMC begin risk production of its 1.4nm process by December 31, 2027?

Will Intel Foundry secure a contract for its 18A node from at least one external customer by December 31, 2027?

What will be the median predicted year for human-level AGI on Metaculus as of 2027-06-28?

Will superintelligence (an AI that can far surpass human cognitive abilities across most domains) be achieved by 2027-06-28?

Will Cohere release a new major version of Command R+ (e.g., Command R+ 2) by June 28, 2027?

Will Anthropic release a Claude 3.x update (e.g., Claude 3.5 Opus) before 1 January 2027?

Will OpenAI release any GPT-4.x update (e.g., GPT-4.5) in 2026?

Will Google release Gemini 2.0 Pro before 1 January 2027?

Will Mistral AI release a new major version of Mistral Large (e.g., Mistral Large 3) by June 28, 2027?

Will Anthropic release Claude 4 before 1 January 2027?

Will AI21 Labs release a new model in the Jurassic series (e.g., Jurassic-3) by June 28, 2027?

Will Google release Gemini Ultra 2.0 before 1 January 2027?

Will Meta release a new version of Llama 3 (e.g., Llama 3.1 or 3.2) by June 28, 2027?

Will OpenAI release a new model in the o1/o3 product line (e.g., o4) before 1 January 2027?

Will Meta release Llama 4 before 1 January 2027?

Will the global number of deployed warehouse robots exceed 1 million by June 28, 2027?

Will the global installed base of autonomous mobile robots (AMRs) in warehouses exceed 500,000 units by December 31, 2027?

Will DeepMind release a new version of AlphaCode (e.g., AlphaCode 3) that outperforms all other models on Codeforces by June 28, 2027?

Will OpenAI release DALL-E 4 before 2027-07-01?

Which text-to-image AI platform will have the most monthly active users in December 2026?

Will Midjourney release Midjourney 7 before 2027-07-01?

Will GitHub Copilot release a major version update (e.g., Copilot 3.0) by June 28, 2027?

Will OpenAI release a significant update to GPT-4V (e.g., GPT-4V-2) on or before June 28, 2027?

Will Stability AI release Stable Diffusion 4 before 2027-07-01?

Will ASML ship more than 10 High-NA EUV systems in 2027?

Which company will be the first to adopt High-NA EUV for mass production?

Will the CHIPS Act disburse over $10 billion in funding by the end of 2028?

Will a leading-edge semiconductor fab be built in Europe by 2030?

Will at least one CHIPS Act-funded fab commence construction by the end of 2027?

Will Meta release Llama 4 by July 24, 2026?

Will Google announce a major update to Gemini (e.g., Gemini 2.0) by July 24, 2026?

Will Anthropic release a new version of Claude (e.g., Claude 4) by July 24, 2026?

Will OpenAI release a new flagship model (e.g., GPT-5) by July 24, 2026?

Will the average selling price of NVIDIA H100 GPUs on the secondary market be at least 10% lower in December 2026 compared to June 2026?

Will AMD ship more than 200,000 MI300X GPUs in the second half of 2026?

Will NVIDIA's Data Center revenue for fiscal Q3 2027 (quarter ending October 2026) exceed $30 billion?

Will NVIDIA's share of the AI GPU market (by revenue) be above 85% in the fourth quarter of 2026?

Will NVIDIA ship more than 1,000,000 Blackwell GPUs in the second half of 2026?

Will NVIDIA ship more than 500,000 H100 GPUs in the second half of 2026 (July-December)?

Will SpaceX's Starlink direct-to-cell service be commercially available to consumers in at least one country before July 1, 2027?

Will Starlink exceed 5 million global subscribers before July 1, 2027?

Will SpaceX's Starship complete its first crewed orbital flight before July 1, 2027?

Will Blue Origin successfully launch the New Glenn rocket on an orbital trajectory before July 1, 2027?

Will SpaceX achieve a turnaround of less than 24 hours between landing and relaunch of a Starship Super Heavy booster before July 1, 2027?

Will SpaceX's total revenue for the calendar year 2026 exceed $15 billion?

Will a quantum computer with at least 100 logical qubits be publicly demonstrated before January 1, 2029?

Will a quantum computer with at least 1,000 physical qubits and an average two-qubit gate fidelity greater than 99.5% be demonstrated before January 1, 2029?

Will a quantum computer with at least 10,000 physical qubits be demonstrated before January 1, 2033?

Will a quantum computer with at least 1,000 logical qubits be demonstrated before January 1, 2031?

Will Amazon reach a market capitalization of $2 trillion or $3 trillion by June 30, 2027?

Will Meta reach a market capitalization of $2 trillion or $3 trillion by June 30, 2027?

Will Microsoft reach a market capitalization of $4 trillion or $5 trillion by June 30, 2027?

Will Alphabet reach a market capitalization of $3 trillion or $4 trillion by June 30, 2027?

Will Apple reach a market capitalization of $4 trillion or $5 trillion by June 30, 2027?

Will global grid-scale battery deployment exceed 300 GWh in 2027?

Will the average cost of grid-scale battery storage fall below $100 per kWh by the end of 2027?

Will Commonwealth Fusion Systems successfully complete a full-scale test of a toroidal field coil for SPARC by December 31, 2027?

Will the National Ignition Facility (NIF) achieve an ignition shot (yield exceeding input laser energy) in calendar year 2027?

Will the SPARC tokamak achieve its first deuterium-tritium (D-T) plasma by December 31, 2028?

Will Helion Energy demonstrate net electricity generation from its Polaris fusion system by December 31, 2028?

Will Commonwealth Fusion Systems achieve first plasma in its SPARC tokamak by December 31, 2027?

Will Google announce a next-generation TPU beyond the v5 series by December 31, 2027?

Will AWS announce a new generation of its Trainium or Inferentia chips by December 31, 2027?

Will Microsoft announce a new generation of its Maia AI accelerator beyond Maia 100 by December 31, 2027?

Will any biotechnology company report positive Phase 2 results for a CRISPR-based therapy before 2027-06-28?

Will any regulatory agency (FDA or EMA) approve a new CRISPR-based therapy for clinical use before 2027-06-28?

Will the FDA or EMA approve at least one new gene therapy for a neurological disorder before 2027-06-28?

Will the highest MMLU score be achieved by an open-source model by June 28, 2027?

Which company created the most downloaded open-source LLM on Hugging Face as of June 28, 2027?

Will any research group demonstrate quantum supremacy on a computational problem before 2027-06-28?

Will a quantum computer demonstrate a provable advantage over classical algorithms in solving an optimization problem of industrial relevance before January 1, 2031?

Will a quantum computer demonstrate a practical advantage in a drug discovery application before January 1, 2031?

Will Apple launch a product in a new product category for Apple before June 28, 2027?

Will Google release the Pixel 11 smartphone before December 31, 2026?

Will Meta release the Quest 4 VR headset before June 28, 2027?

Will SpaceX successfully conduct the first orbital flight of a Starship rocket before July 1, 2027?

Will Apple release the Vision Pro 2 headset before December 31, 2027?

Will Apple introduce a new generative AI feature for iPhones before December 31, 2026?

Will any AI model achieve a score of at least 90% on the MMLU benchmark by July 24, 2026?

Will the FDA accept a New Drug Application (NDA) for a drug that was discovered using artificial intelligence as a primary discovery tool by June 28, 2027?

Will a drug candidate that was discovered using artificial intelligence enter Phase I clinical trials by June 28, 2027?

Will any company announce that it has started mass production of humanoid robots (defined as producing at least 100 units per year) by June 28, 2027?

Will humanoid robots be deployed for operational use in at least 10 factories worldwide by June 28, 2027?

Will Figure deploy at least 100 units of its humanoid robots (Figure 01 or 02) to commercial customers by June 28, 2027?

Will Boston Dynamics announce a commercial price and availability for Atlas by June 28, 2027?

Will a scientific study publish results showing a statistically significant increase in human lifespan in a controlled clinical trial before 2027-06-28?

Will the FDA approve a drug whose primary mechanism is senolytic for any indication before 2027-06-28?

Will Calico or Altos Labs initiate a Phase I clinical trial for a longevity therapy by June 28, 2027?