Prediction Markets

Will the US government reinstate the 'Remain in Mexico' policy (Migrant Protection Protocols) before the end of 2027?

Will the United Nations Security Council adopt a resolution demanding a ceasefire in Sudan before July 23, 2026?

Will China begin construction of a new artificial island in the South China Sea by 28 June 2027?

Will a naval skirmish or collision occur between China and the Philippines in the South China Sea before 2027-06-28?

Will the US BIS impose major new technology export controls on China before 1 January 2027?

Will the United States impose new sanction designations on Chinese companies related to Russia by the end of 2026?

Which outcome best describes the EU's sanctions policy toward Russia by the end of 2026?

Will OFAC publicly designate a new entity for sanctions evasion related to Russia in 2026?

Will a humanitarian corridor be opened in Sudan to allow aid delivery by 28 June 2027?

Will the UN World Food Programme successfully deliver food assistance to all planned beneficiaries in Sudan by 28 June 2027?

Will the Council of the European Union extend the EU's sanctions regime for actions undermining Ukraine's territorial integrity at the July 20-22 Foreign Affairs Council?

Will the European Council at the June 24-25 summit agree to start accession negotiations with Ukraine?

Will the 2026 NATO Summit issue a formal invitation to Ukraine to join the Alliance?

Will a formal ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine be signed by June 30, 2027?

Will a nationwide ceasefire be declared in Myanmar by 28 June 2027?

Which side will control the city of Avdiivka as of June 30, 2027?

Which side will control the majority of the Zaporizhzhia Oblast as of June 30, 2027?

Will a peace agreement be signed to end the Sudanese Civil War by 28 June 2027?

Will the Ethiopian government and the Oromo Liberation Army begin formal peace negotiations by 28 June 2027?

Will the total number of military casualties in the Russo-Ukrainian war reach 1,000,000 by June 30, 2027?

Will Russia and Ukraine sign a peace treaty by June 30, 2027?

Will the BRICS+ format be formally established by a summit declaration by the end of 2026?

Will BRICS admit at least one new member by the end of 2026?

To which country will the next major newly-named Advanced Persistent Threat (APT) group be primarily attributed?

Will a ransomware attack against a U.S. critical infrastructure entity trigger a formal federal emergency declaration before 2027-06-28?

Will the U.S. government formally attribute a significant cyberattack to a foreign state actor before 2027-06-28?

Will the United Nations Security Council admit a new permanent member by the end of 2026?

Will the President of the United States make an official state visit to the United Kingdom in 2026?

Will King Charles III visit Canada as part of an official royal tour in 2026?

Will the United Nations Human Rights Council adopt a resolution condemning the Venezuelan government in its current session before July 5, 2026?

Will the United Kingdom formally recognize Palestine as a state before 2027-06-28?

Will the Scottish Parliament pass a bill authorizing an independence referendum before 2027-06-28?

Will the 2027 Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) Review Conference successfully adopt a consensus final document?

Will the United States and Russia sign a new binding nuclear arms control treaty before 2027-06-28?

Will the total number of asylum applications in the United States in calendar year 2026 exceed 1.5 million?

Will the United States resettle at least 100,000 refugees in fiscal year 2027?

Which country will be the top country of origin for asylum claims in the European Union in 2026?

Will a foreign government be formally confirmed to have interfered in the 2026 U.S. midterm elections?

Will the US government officially attribute any election interference in the 2026 midterm elections to a foreign government by December 31, 2026?

Will North Korea conduct a long-range ballistic missile test (range > 5,500 km) before 2027-06-28?

Will the IAEA confirm Iran has enriched uranium to 90% purity or higher before 2027-06-28?

Will any country conduct a confirmed nuclear weapons test explosion in 2026?

Will the United Nations General Assembly admit Palestine as a full member state in 2026?

Will any country relocate its embassy to Jerusalem in 2026?

Will India and Pakistan agree to any territorial readjustment along the Line of Control before 2027-06-28?

Will India and Pakistan officially announce a joint investigation into a ceasefire violation in Kashmir before 2027-06-28?

Will the 2026 G20 summit adopt a final communique?

What will be the primary outcome of the 2026 G20 summit?

Will the NATO summit in 2026 issue a formal invitation to Ukraine to join the alliance?

Will the US and Iran resume full compliance with the JCPOA before 2027-01-01?

Will the JCPOA snapback mechanism of UN sanctions against Iran be triggered before 2027-01-01?

Will the US increase tariffs on Chinese imports by more than 10 percentage points on average in 2026?

Will the US raise Section 232 tariffs on steel imports to 50% or more in 2026?

Will the US impose new restrictions on semiconductor equipment exports to China in 2026?

Will the US impose an additional round of export controls on AI chips to China in 2026?

Will the 2026 Quad Leaders' Summit produce a joint communiqué?

Will the AUKUS partners announce a specific timeline for the first nuclear submarine delivery to Australia by the end of 2026?

Will China conduct a military exercise in the Taiwan Strait that crosses the median line by 28 June 2027?

Will any United Nations member state switch its diplomatic recognition from Taiwan to China by 28 June 2027?

Will Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty be invoked in response to an armed attack on a member state before 2027-06-28?

Will a NATO Center of Excellence be established in Finland before 2027-06-28?

Will any new country become a member of NATO before 2027-06-28?