Prediction Markets

Will Tesla launch a commercial robotaxi service without a safety driver in the United States before July 1, 2027?

Will Waymo launch a commercial driverless robotaxi service for paying passengers in at least one city outside the United States before July 1, 2027?

Will the number of ice-free days along the Northern Sea Route exceed 150 in 2026?

Will the total number of shared micromobility (e-scooter and e-bike) trips in Portland, Oregon exceed 5 million in 2026?

Will the average weekday ridership of the New York City Subway in 2027 reach at least 85% of its 2019 level?

Will the first metro line in Bogotá (Line 1) open for public operation before December 31, 2028?

Will the FAA issue type certification for a supersonic commercial aircraft (e.g., Boom Overture) by June 28, 2028?

Will the FAA issue type certification for at least one eVTOL aircraft (e.g., Joby or Archer) by June 28, 2027?

Will commercial supersonic passenger service begin (e.g., with Boom Overture) before June 28, 2029?

Which region will have the highest battery electric vehicle market share in the 2027 calendar year?

Will any major automaker offer a production vehicle with SAE Level 3 autonomous driving for sale in the United States before July 1, 2027?

Will any company claim to have achieved SAE Level 5 autonomous driving in a road-legal vehicle before July 1, 2027?

Will any company operate a commercial driverless robotaxi service without a safety driver in a US city that did not have such service as of June 28, 2026, before July 1, 2027?

What will be the average container ship waiting time at the Port of Los Angeles in November 2026?

Will the Port of Shanghai's container throughput exceed 4.5 million TEUs in October 2026?

Will BYD report passenger vehicle sales for June 2026 exceeding 500,000 units?

Will Ford sell more than 20,000 F-150 Lightning trucks in Q2 2026?

Will Tesla report global vehicle deliveries for Q2 2026 exceeding 500,000?

Will the global number of orbital launches in 2027 be at least 250?

Will there be any unscheduled blockage of the Suez Canal lasting more than 24 hours during Q4 2026 (October 1 to December 31, 2026)?

Will the Suez Canal report more than 1,600 transits in September 2026?

Will the average daily transits through the Panama Canal be at least 32 in January 2027?

Will the Panama Canal Authority impose or maintain any drought-related transit restrictions (draft limits or daily slot reductions) between July 1, 2026 and December 31, 2026?

Will at least 10 cities worldwide have officially adopted a '15-minute city' planning initiative by 2028?

Will any eVTOL aircraft begin commercial passenger operations (revenue flights) before June 28, 2028?

Will a major US airline (ranked in top 10 by passenger traffic) file for Chapter 11 bankruptcy between July 1, 2026 and June 30, 2027?

Will General Motors produce at least 1 million electric vehicles globally in the 2027 calendar year?

Will Volkswagen Group sell over 1 million electric vehicles worldwide in 2026?

Will Ford achieve its target of 600,000 global annual EV sales in 2026?

Will a zero-emission zone (ZEZ) be enforced in a US city with population over 1 million by 2028?

Will at least 3 additional US cities (excluding NYC) have operational congestion pricing programs by December 31, 2027?

Will Boeing deliver the first 777X aircraft to a customer by July 15, 2026?

Will the total value of confirmed aircraft orders at the 2026 Farnborough Airshow exceed $100 billion?

Will the New York City congestion pricing program still be fully active (tolling) on January 1, 2028?

Will at least 10 cities in the United States have formal regulatory frameworks for shared micromobility by the end of 2027?

Will the Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (SCFI) be higher in its last publication of 2026 than in its last publication of 2025?

Will the Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (SCFI) close above 3,000 points on the last trading day of Q3 2026 (September 30, 2026)?

Will the total cost to complete the California High-Speed Rail initial operating segment (Merced-Bakersfield) exceed the currently budgeted $10.5 billion?

In which calendar year will the California High-Speed Rail initial operating segment (Merced-Bakersfield) open for revenue service?

Will construction begin on the California High-Speed Rail's Palmdale-Burbank segment before January 1, 2030?

Will there be at least one segment of the California High-Speed Rail project under active construction on December 31, 2028?

Will the Trans-African Highway 1 (Cairo-Dakar) be fully paved by December 31, 2028?

Will construction of the India-Middle East-Europe Corridor (IMEC) officially begin by December 31, 2028?

Will the actual total investment in BRI projects in 2027 be at least 90% of the budgeted amount as reported by China's Ministry of Commerce?

Will Boeing or Airbus announce a single order of 200 or more aircraft between July 1, 2026 and June 30, 2027?

What will be the battery electric vehicle (BEV) share of new car sales in the United States in calendar year 2027?