Resolves Yes if Settles to the outcome the underlying source market resolves to.
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Historical Arctic sea ice minimum extents since 2007 have predominantly fallen below 4.8 million km², with only one year (2010) in the 4.8-5 million km² range, giving a ~5% base rate. The declining trend due to climate change makes it unlikely to land in this narrow band, but natural variability could lead to a slightly higher extent this year. As of early July 2026, the melting season is ongoing, but overall climatological odds remain low.
