Will the US Supreme Court hold that the federal ban on firearm possession by anyone subject to a domestic violence restraining order violates the Second Amendment before July 23, 2026?

Resolves Yes if Supreme Court issues a ruling in United States v. Rahimi (No. 22-291) that invalidates 18 U.S.C. § 922(g)(8) as applied to the defendant on Second Amendment grounds. If the Court upholds the statute or does not decide, No.

Outcome verified from supremecourt.gov.

1. Market open

   Jul 8, 2026, 10:03 PM UTC
2. Market closes

   By Jul 22, 2026, 11:59 PM UTC
3. Projected payout

   Shortly after the market closes

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